Scottish Hearts and Minds
On Sunday I said:
Cameron wants to be the Prime Minister of the UK but he also wants to run England as UK Prime Minister. To do this he must try and win votes and MPs in Scotland to claim that his government has a Scottish mandate on reserved issues, and he must also give Alex Salmond absolutely no opportunity to attack him on grounds of anti-Scottishness....Scotland is the battleground. And if he loses in Scotland Cameron will face the prospect of a Conservative cabinet with no Scottish representation; and that means he will be heading an English government running Scotland on reserved matters. The Conservative Party will not be the Party of the Union; a Conservative government on those terms will be the final nail in the Union’s coffin.
Today, The Scotsman says:
SNP figures admit privately that a Tory victory would be good for their cause, allowing them to accuse Mr Cameron of having no mandate to govern in Scotland, where the Tories admit they are unlikely to add many – if any – seats....It is a concern of which the Conservatives – and their leader David Cameron – are only too well aware. And while a general election may yet be two years away, the party is tackling head-on the suggestion that it could play into the hands of Alex Salmond, the First Minister, if it fails to make gains in Scotland.
Can you imagine the Conservatives winning a General Election that gave Scotland 20 Scottish Nationalist MPs but no Tories? I can. Cameron can. Salmond can. Gordon Brown is trying very hard not to.
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Widespread disillusionment
Widespread disillusionment with this oppressive Labour government is of course the main reason for this swing to the Tories but as anyone who reads these blogs knows many English people are fed up with being systematically excluded from the 'British' state while at the same time being told they are solely responsible for its imperialist past. Of course many traditional Tories are still proud of this past and this is why they cling to notions of Britishness; but it is they who belong to the past. By turning England overwhelmingly blue English people can effectively regain control of both their own affairs (at least as much of those as the EU allows) and the UK on reserved matters. If Cameron has an overwhelming majority the votes of Scottish and Welsh MPs from other parties will cease to matter on England only issues. They will be drowned in a blue English tide. As you rightly say, the next move to Scotland. It really matters very little what Cameron thinks privately or officially about Britain.
I can see this getting very
I can see this getting very messy for the Conservative, even if they win a couple more seats at the general election.