Predictions for 2011

Belatedley, a Happy New Year to you all. I'm now back in the YooKay, enjoying the rain, and contemplating another year of blogging about the English Question. In time honoured fashion here are my predictions for the forthcoming year.

The Legislation (Territorial Extent) Bill debate will focus around 'farcical divisions' and the Barnett Formula. Tory MPs enthusiastic about English Votes on English Laws will suddenly realise how it will complicate the legislative process and Parliamentary timetable, and they will also come to understand that non-English MPs have an obligation to vote on English matters that affect the Barnett Formula.

In regard to the Barnett Formula Malcolm Rifkind will see this as vindication of his solution to the WLQ. David Davis will argue that Rifkind's solution is not a satisfactory solution for England.

In March Wales will vote for the Welsh Assembly to have primary law making powers. Bognador, Mycock, Hazell and Co will proclaim that Britain is now a "quasi-federation".

BritologyWatch, Out of England, A National Conversation, The CEP and Our Kingdom will be my most read blogs.

The Royal wedding will be accompanied by a rash of commentary on Britishness and national identity, and the health of British national identity will be unfairly measured by the perceived vigour of the celebrations and contrasted with the Charles and Diana wedding of thirty years ago. The presence of English flags on the streets, due to the wedding's proximity to St George's Day, will encourage speculation about the nature of Britishness.

In May's Scottish general election the Labour Party will become the largest party in the Scottish Parliament and will enter into a coalition with the Scottish Liberal Democrats, an event that results in Scottish Liberal Democrat MPs resigning the whip at Westminster thereby reducing Cameron's majority. However, no Lib Dem will cross the floor and join Labour.

The debate over the referendum on AV will bore the living shit out of every sane man, woman and child in Britain. The result will be YES but the winner will be apathy and disillusionment.

The Commission into the West Lothian Question will not report by the end of 2011. Word will leak out that they are recommending a convention by which Scottish MPs would abstain from voting on England-only laws, with the proviso that it would be unreasonable to expect this until the Barnett Formula is scrapped. Alex Salmond rubs his hands with glee.

The 'settled will of the Scottish people' will be ammended by the Scotland Bill, the slippery slope to fiscal federalism and ultimately independence is ironically greased by Unionists in the face of SNP opposition.

The 2011 census will show that 'English' not 'British' is the dominant national identity on these islands.

Years from now 2011 will be remembered as the year when Britain entered its death throes, but not because of devolution, quasi-federalism or territorial squabbling. 2011 is the year in which Parliament will signal its intent to create an elected upper house, after which the Union may struggle on but notions of 'Britain' will go into terminal decline with the abolishment of privilege, appointment and the final political emasculation of the aristocracy.